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Welcome to your Bountiful Almond Market Update. 🙏 Thank you for being here. If you're having trouble accessing data on the Bountiful platform via the links below, please let me know!
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Bountiful Bloom updates are released on Fridays during bloom. 👉 The last four Bountiful Bloom updates: Feb 17th, Feb 24th, Mar 3rd, and Mar 13th if you missed them.
This week we're covering:
- A look at 2022 Carry-Out using the latest position report data
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🤓 2022 Carry-Out Outlook
We've entered a time of year where speculation on carry-out, amid crazy bloom weather discussion and uncertainty on the success or failure of the 2023 bloom has the market buzzing. We can focus on what we can measure now with the data we have. I'm looking at you Carry-Out.
Following the release of the February position report, I shared Bountiful's estimate on where final crop receipts will end for the 2023 crop year, 2.53-2.55 B lbs.
For purposes of estimating the Carry-Out for this year, I'm going to assume the 2022 final crop will be at the upper end of 2.55 B lbs and a few scenarios for the remaining shipment months over last year: 0% change, up 1%, and down 1%.
You can check out my saved Carry-Out scenarios 👇 from the Bountiful platform.
Assuming a final crop size of 2.55 B lbs and the remaining shipments over last year: 0% change, up 1%, or down 1% we can expect a 2022 Carry-out of 611-635 M LBS representing 18.32-19.04% of 3.336 B LBS 2023 Total Marketable Supply (TMS).
The average Carry-Out as a % of TMS 2019-2023 is 17.63% resulting in 565 M LBS. The 2022 crop carryout has the potential to bring balance to the almond market ahead of the 2023 marketing year, providing potential for a contraction in overall TMS for 2023 when compared to previous years.
Shipment demand (monthly and weekly exports) will be important to watch over the remaining marketing months for 2022 as we await early indications on crop size for 2023.
You can build and save your own Carry-Out scenarios in the Bountiful platform.
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