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Bountiful Market Updated: April 2023 Position Report

Bountiful Market is updated with new data from the April 2023 Almond Board of California position report.

 

Log in to Market on the Bountiful platform to explore:

  • Monthly Shipments
  • Carry-out trends
  • Crop Receipts by Variety
  • Total Marketable Supply, Shipments vs Commitments 



๐Ÿ“ˆ Almond Crop Receipts down over 2021 

April's position report is the ninth receiving month of the 2022/2023 marketing year. Total crop receipts to date:  2,563,537,458 lbs down -11.75% over last year. 

Monthly new crop receipts: 

The monthly new crop received per ABC form 1 reporting

  • April: 22,736,815 lbs up +27.16% over March
  • March: 17,880,564 lbs 

๐Ÿšข 2022 Shipments 

April's total shipments:  197,255,980 lbs down -19.57% over April last year and down -29.82% over last month's March shipments: 281,069,291 lbs. 

2022/2023 total shipments to date: 1,995,667,557 lbs up +3.49% over last year

Almond Monthly Shipments from Bountiful platform

 

๐Ÿ”ฎ Future Demand 

Total new sales for April: 114,684,207 lbsdown -20.14% over March's new sales of 143,601,940 lbs.

 

๐Ÿ“ˆ 2022 Crop Receipt Projections

Following the release of December's position report we start running a forward projection on ABC form 1 crop receipts, every month, to get an idea of the total size of the crop. 

The methodology we use for our crop receipt projections is different from our in-season machine learning forecasts. Our 2022 in-season forecasts are complete and have not been updated since we released a final forecast in July. 

For our crop receipt projection, we only use ABC form 1 crop receipt data for current and historical years. The model we use looks for a pattern in how crop receipts are coming in month over month.
 

As of April ABC form 1 crop receipts, 2022 final crop receipts are projected to be 2.569 B - 2.579 B lbs. You can reference this in the image below 2022/2023 marketing year is in light blue

You'll notice 2022 crop receipts receiving pattern below looks very similar to 2019 and 2020. 

Bountiful Almond Crop Receipt projection as of April 2023 position report

๐Ÿ“Š Bountiful's 2022 forecasts

Following the August position report, we publicly shared all forecasts released on the Bountiful platform, to our Farm and Industry customers, throughout the 2022 crop year.

  • First table: Bountiful's yield forecast distribution by month
  • Second table: Bountiful's acreage and production forecast distribution by month

Bountiful 2022 Yield Forecasts

Forecast performance

Now that we've received the April position report we start benchmarking our error performance for all forecasts released by Bountiful. Please note, we will continue to update our actual error through the remaining receiving months of the 2022 crop year.  

Below you'll find Bountiful's 2022 forecast performance by month as of the April position report for yield, production, and acreage. Bountiful 2023 performance as of April 2023 position report 

Log in to the Bountiful platform to explore all Market data for yourself!