By
Almond Board of California position report covering October 2026, released November 12, 2026.
By Megan Nunes, Founder & CEO, Bountiful.
📝 Key Takeaways
California almond shipments reached 250.6 million lbs in October 2026, up just 0.57% from October 2025 as the early-season export surge flattened. Year-to-date exports are up 16.81%, while domestic shipments are down 5.49%. 
Crop receipts reached 1.90 billion lbs, up 11.68% year-over-year, although October receipts slowed from September. Bountiful’s 2.59B lb crop forecast is 4.1% below the industry’s 2.70B lb assumption.
Bountiful projects approximately 108M lbs less uncommitted supply than the industry assumption. Applying a 2% loss/exempt adjustment, our crop forecast implies 1.81B lbs of projected full-season uncommitted supply, compared with 1.92B lbs under the industry’s crop assumption.
Our Market View: Demand remains constructive, with 512M lbs of new sales across September and October. While the report offers limited evidence of an immediate price breakout, sustained demand against a potentially smaller crop could tighten the supply balance later in the marketing year.
🔮 How big is the 2026 California almond crop? Bountiful vs. Industry
Bountiful's final in-season machine learning forecast, released August 14, 2026, puts the 2026 California almond crop at a median of 2.589 B lbs, range 2.478 to 2.701 B lbs, on 1,398,924 bearing acres, at a median yield of 1,851 lbs/acre. That is about 4.1% below (110,591,676 lbs) the 2,700 million lb crop receipts forecast the Almond Board uses in its position report.
- Bountiful median (Aug 14 final): 2.59B lbs
- Bountiful range: 2.48B to 2.70B lbs
- ABC position report / USDA subjective: 2.70B lbs
This month we are sharing our April–August forecast distributions, showing the median yield move from 1,946 to 1,851 lbs/acre as the season developed. We will begin measuring forecast performance against final receipts starting March 2027.
👉 Why it matters: receipts running +11.68% ahead of last year, at 1,896,486,563 lbs through October 31, still reflect harvest pace more than final crop size. Our models say the industry number sits at the top of our range, not the middle. Receipts so far equal about 73% of our 2.59B lb median and about 70% of the industry's 2.70B lb figure.
🔢 October at a Glance
- Total Marketable Supply: 2,329,211,970 lbs +8.43%, built on a carry-in of 470,655,138 lbs -2.72% and crop receipts of 1,896,486,563 lbs +11.68%.
- Shipments: 250,649,280 lbs in October +0.57%; 673,290,949 lbs year-to-date +11.42%.
- Commitments: 526,235,538 lbs committed, not shipped -6.29%; uncommitted inventory 1,129,685,483 lbs +15.01%.
- New sales: 247,666,287 lbs in October, -5.41% vs. 261,822,248 lbs in October 2025.
- Sold position: 51.50% of TMS sold -2.77 pts; 28.91% shipped +0.77 pts. "Sold" here means shipments plus committed-unshipped volume, as a share of Total Marketable Supply.
Source: Almond Board of California, October 2026 Position Report and the Bountiful Platform, Market
🌳 Crop Receipts
Harvest still running ahead of last year, but October slowed
October's position report is the third month of the 2026/2027 marketing year.
Crop receipts to date: 1,896,486,563 lbs, +11.68% over last year.
New-crop receipts reported on ABC Form 1 for October alone were 680,980,703 lbs, down 16.31% from September. Nonpareil accounts for 40.79% of receipts so far, 773,487,015 lbs, with Independence at 18.55% and Monterey at 17.48%. Inedibles are running at 2.32% across all varieties (ABC Quality Control Receipts Report).
🚢 How many almonds did California ship in October 2026?
October shipments:
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250,649,280 lbs, +0.57% over October 2025 and +7.78% over September.
That is a sharp slowdown from September's 17.89% year-over-year gain, and it came in below October 2024's 258,440,966 lbs.
From Bountiful Market: October 2026 shipments of 250,649,280 lbs were just 0.57% above October 2025 and below October 2024's 258,440,966 lbs.
Shipments Year-to-date
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Export 535,118,162 lbs, +16.81%
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Domestic 138,172,787 lbs, -5.49%
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Total 673,290,949 lbs, +11.42%
Committed-unshipped volume:
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526,235,538 lbs -6.29%, leaving 1,129,685,483 lbs of uncommitted inventory +15.01%.
📊 Almond Exports by Region
Inshell made up 32% of October export volume, compared with 20% in October 2025. India remains the main driver: it took 52,337,823 lbs in October, of which 52,165,823 lbs were inshell.
- India: 162,959,924 lbs year-to-date +124%; Pakistan 28,990,409 lbs +360%.
- Turkey: 35,175,077 lbs year-to-date +13%, while the UAE is at 34,377,272 lbs -29%.
- Western Europe: 117,017,465 lbs year-to-date -12%, with Spain -31% and Germany +10%.
- Northeast Asia: 47,271,120 lbs +32%; Southeast Asia: 37,464,818 lbs -19%.
🧠 What our models are watching
Bountiful's demand, price, and post-harvest supply models are tracking whether October's slowdown in shipment growth continues through winter, and whether our smaller crop forecast translates into a tighter supply balance. The key variables are shipment momentum, forward commitments, and remaining crop receipts.
Those forecasts are available exclusively to Premium subscribers in Bountiful Market.
🔭 Bountiful Market Outlook
What do the shipments mean? Demand is real, but it’s narrow. India is doing most of the work right now, and the rest of the world is roughly flat. As long as India keeps buying, exports hold up. If India pulls back, there isn’t much else to fill the gap.
What about sales? Buyers are still booking at these prices, and we haven’t seen anyone step away. We’re behind last year on sold position because more of the crop has been received so far, August through October, not because people stopped buying. That’s about timing. It doesn’t mean the crop is bigger.
What about crop size? We still think the crop is smaller than the industry is assuming. Receipts slowed in October, and that’s consistent with our forecast. We’ll know more as the remaining receipts come in.
So where do prices go? Not much off this report. If demand holds through winter and the crop comes in where we expect, supply gets tighter in the spring, and that’s when prices would start to feel it.
The next Almond Board position report comes out Friday, December 11, 2026, and we’ll publish our update the same day.
Megan Nunes, Founder & CEO, Bountiful
🔓 What Premium subscribers get in Bountiful Market
Free subscribers get this monthly update. Premium subscribers get the intelligence behind it:
- Demand and price forecasts built on shipment momentum, forward commitments, and new sales
- Post-harvest supply models, including projected full-season uncommitted supply like the 1.81B lb figure above
- Full machine learning crop forecasts for acreage, yield, and production at the state and county level, including the probabilities we leave out of public releases
- Monthly crop receipt projections starting after the December position report
- The full Market dashboard with shipments, carry-out trends, receipts by variety, and Total Marketable Supply vs. commitments
