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Bountiful Bloom, 2011-2023 almond analysis

Welcome to your Bountiful Bloom an analysis looking at the last 13 years (2011-2023) bloom length, yield, bee flight, and chill data. All data in the email below covers California state, if you'd like to see the same data below broken out by North, Central, and South to uncover variability, possible patterns, etc. let me know.

If you missed the 2023 Almond Bloom Summary, I got you ๐Ÿ‘‰ Bountiful Bloom 2023 Bloom Summary. Please note I noticed an error in how I reported chill portions and bee flight hours on Monday, that's been updated in the linked Bountiful 2023 Bloom Summary. My apologies ๐Ÿ™.

Let me know if you're having issues accessing the links below, I'm here to help!

2011-2023 Almond Bloom Analysis ๐ŸŒธ

As it turns out, I am not the only person curious about what we can learn from the last 12 years, compared to this year, 2023. I'm taking a deep dive into ๐ŸŒธ Bloom Length, โ„๏ธ Chill Portions, ๐Ÿ Bee Hours, and ultimately what the outcomes were i.e. โš–๏ธ Yield 

๐ŸŒธ Bloom Duration

On the topic of bloom, specifically bloom length when aggregating bloom days (duration) and averaging duration by year, see ๐Ÿ‘‡ you'll notice bloom duration over time in the last 12 years is fairly stable at 32-34 days. When comparing 2023 to previous years it's clear 2023 bloom length is an outlier and perhaps as some have suggested, it was too long? and possibly too long by 11-13 days. 

โ„๏ธ Chill Portions

Unlike bloom duration stability, chill portions are in a declining trend, see ๐Ÿ‘‡. When looking across years for the last 12 years of data, this year is an outlier from the average by anywhere from 10-26 more chill portions. 

๐Ÿ Bee Flight Hours

Unlike the chill portions declining trend bee flight hours seem to be in an increasing trend, see ๐Ÿ‘‡ when looking across year segments for the last 12 years of data, with this year being an outlier from the average by anywhere from 50-73 less Bee Flight Hours.

Bountiful Data 

So, now a question for you: have you noticed a trend yet?

When looking at 2023 ๐ŸŒธ Bloom Duration, โ„๏ธ Chill Portions, and  ๐Ÿ Bee Hours, the results of the 2023 almond bloom deviate from the average across all bloom metrics and year segments making the 2023 almond bloom an outlier.

Yeah yeah yeah so what about โš–๏ธ Yield?

โš–๏ธ Yield

In the table ๐Ÿ‘‡ you can see California's average yield outcomes for the last 12 years, which I pulled from Bountiful Yield Metrics. And you'll notice bloom duration, chill portions, and bee flight hours data values are included for each respective year, 2011-2023, for California. 

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Screenshot 2023-03-27 at 6.30.24 PM

So what are the trends for California โš–๏ธ Yield?

Interestingly enough when you look at the last 12 years of California's average yield you'll notice a slight decline between 12 and 10 years, then consistent increases in yield each year grouping onward.

You can see the trend I'm explaining in the โš–๏ธ CA Average Yield (lbs/acre) table ๐Ÿ‘‡.

Bountiful Yield Metrics Data

So what does ๐ŸŒธ Bloom Duration, โ„๏ธ Chill Portions, ๐Ÿ Bee Hours, mean for this year's, 2023 harvest outcomes i.e. What's โš–๏ธ California Average Yield going to be?

Well, if we are to take a look at the Summary, by year for California table I shared with you above and select a year with values similar to 2023 when it comes to โ„๏ธ Chill Portions, &  ๐Ÿ Bee Hours... There is a year that stands out as similar: the year is 2017. 

That being said if you've been following Bountiful and reading our Bloom or Almond Market Updates you know already that chill portions and bee flight hours don't have a linear relationship to yield. And understanding the complexity of bloom overlap timing and length, chill, and bee flight hours are better left to machine learning. What we do know so far in terms of the stats measured so for 2023 when compared to the average ๐ŸŒธ Bloom Duration, โ„๏ธ Chill Portions, and ๐Ÿ Bee Hours, it's an outlier.

Bountiful's first almond forecasts (yield, acreage, and production) for 2023 will be released to our premium subscribers, Industry and Farm customers, on the Bountiful platform, Forecasts & Drivers (See ๐Ÿ‘‡, Loading... represents This Season 2023 forecasts, coming soon in early April! 

And yes, that's right around the corner so stay tuned ๐ŸŽ‰.

Screenshot 2023-03-27 at 6.37.46 PM
Thank you for the feedback and for following along by subscribing to Bountiful. I'm grateful for your time and attention. Thank you for reading! ๐Ÿ’œ


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