--- title: Weekly Almond Update: 10/26/23 to 11/1/23 description: "Bountiful Weekly Almond Update: 10/26/23 to 11/1/23. El Niño preparing for a cold and wet winter, Coffee Shop how far down is 2023 crop, & October's Position Report, out in less than 2 weeks" --- [Market Updates](https://blog.bountiful.ag) # [Weekly Almond Update: 10/26/23 to 11/1/23](https://blog.bountiful.ag/weekly-almond-market-update-10/26/23-to-11/1/23) Written by [Megan Nunes](https://blog.bountiful.ag/author/megan-nunes) | Nov 1, 2023 7:00:00 PM Welcome to your Weekly Almond Update from Bountiful.   This week we're covering: - El Niño is here: The October forecast and preparing for a cold and wet winter  - A look at Coffee Shops submissions on how far down 2023 crop will be - October's Almond Position Report, out in less than 2 weeks Keep reading for this week's latest or sign in to the [Bountiful platform](https://app.bountiful.ag/?utm_source=hs_email&utm_medium=email&_hsenc=p2ANqtz-9vpleXRn5tmgKRvsLPfFQlWkE_qd2wzj4wSzz8B5IcEHDxQziWMegb013u6QfCr9ktM4tI) for your almond market data-driven insights. 💡 Friendly reminder the Bountiful platform is built to operate best on your 💻 computer browser.    ## 🌧️ El Niño Update **A cold and wet winter is forecasted...** [NOAA's updated their forecasts and outlook for October](https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/october-2023-el-nino-update-big-cats?utm_source=hs_email&utm_medium=email&_hsenc=p2ANqtz-9TQKUs9gyrnPDvTJTIm34kmIsRauqVkO9IQ84tyIzmpoeOv1baWt-jfM4ahO5qFMp7MDiy#comments). El Niño is here and currently purring along in the tropical Pacific. [Forecasters expect](https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml?utm_source=hs_email&utm_medium=email&_hsenc=p2ANqtz-9TQKUs9gyrnPDvTJTIm34kmIsRauqVkO9IQ84tyIzmpoeOv1baWt-jfM4ahO5qFMp7MDiy) El Niño to continue through the Northern Hemisphere spring with an 80% chance during March-May 2024 and there is a 75-85% chance it will become a strong event. 💪 What does a strong El Niño event mean? Significantly warmer-than-average water temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean. More specifically, the measure of a strong El Niño is a peak 3-month-average of at least 1.5 °C. Forecasters use the 3-month-average in the Oceanic Niño Index ([ONI](https://www.climate.gov/news-features/understanding-climate/climate-variability-oceanic-nino-index?utm_source=hs_email&utm_medium=email&_hsenc=p2ANqtz-9TQKUs9gyrnPDvTJTIm34kmIsRauqVkO9IQ84tyIzmpoeOv1baWt-jfM4ahO5qFMp7MDiy#:~:text=NOAA%20considers%20El%20Ni%C3%B1o%20conditions,or%20more%20warmer%20than%20average.)) to make sure that the oceanic and atmospheric changes persist long enough to affect global weather and climate. A peak ONI of 2.0 °C or more is considered “historically strong,” or “very strong.” Visualized below 👇 are the [ONI trends over the last 23 years](https://www.climate.gov/media/15551?utm_source=hs_email&utm_medium=email&_hsenc=p2ANqtz-9TQKUs9gyrnPDvTJTIm34kmIsRauqVkO9IQ84tyIzmpoeOv1baWt-jfM4ahO5qFMp7MDiy). The results of a strong El Nino event: major changes in weather patterns, often causing extreme weather events like heavy rainfall, floods in some regions, and droughts in others. Below you'll see [Precipitation](https://app.bountiful.ag/agriculture/weather)[ Trends](https://app.bountiful.ag/agriculture/weather): 9/1 to 10/31 for 2023, 2016, and 2010. 🌧️🌳 El Niño x Almonds how can you prepare?  Leverage current and historical [weather data](https://app.bountiful.ag/agriculture/weather?utm_source=hs_email&utm_medium=email&_hsenc=p2ANqtz-9TQKUs9gyrnPDvTJTIm34kmIsRauqVkO9IQ84tyIzmpoeOv1baWt-jfM4ahO5qFMp7MDiy) to plan your farm, buy or sell decisions. 📆 You can track real-time events and compare previous El Niño years (like 2022-2023 and 2015-2016) and wet winters (2010/2011) directly in [Bountiful Weather](https://app.bountiful.ag/agriculture/weather?utm_source=hs_email&utm_medium=email&_hsenc=p2ANqtz-9TQKUs9gyrnPDvTJTIm34kmIsRauqVkO9IQ84tyIzmpoeOv1baWt-jfM4ahO5qFMp7MDiy) and uncover yield outcomes in those years using [Yield Metrics](https://app.bountiful.ag/agriculture/yield?utm_source=hs_email&utm_medium=email&_hsenc=p2ANqtz-9TQKUs9gyrnPDvTJTIm34kmIsRauqVkO9IQ84tyIzmpoeOv1baWt-jfM4ahO5qFMp7MDiy). Allowing you to get ahead on planning for winter sanitation, 2024 bloom, and 2024 crop potential as the impending El Niño is on our doorstep. 😧 Yes, I agree it's crazy that I'm mentioning the 2024 new crop while almond harvest is ongoing, sadly I don't make the rules on how production cycles work. How are you preparing for El Nino? [I'd love to hear from you](mailto:megan@bountiful.ag)!   ## ☕ New questions for you in Coffee Shop Have you checked out Community lately? With the general talking points and sentiment of the crop being down 20%-30% on the USDA Objective 2.6B lbs... We asked the [Bountiful Community](https://app.bountiful.ag/community?utm_source=hs_email&utm_medium=email&_hsenc=p2ANqtz-9TQKUs9gyrnPDvTJTIm34kmIsRauqVkO9IQ84tyIzmpoeOv1baWt-jfM4ahO5qFMp7MDiy) Coffee Shop a new question: Where do you think the final crop will end up based on the USDA Objective 2.6B lbs? Current response submissions are trending down -5% to -10% from the USDA Objective. Don't agree, [submit your vote in the Community Coffee Shop](https://app.bountiful.ag/community?utm_source=hs_email&utm_medium=email&_hsenc=p2ANqtz-9TQKUs9gyrnPDvTJTIm34kmIsRauqVkO9IQ84tyIzmpoeOv1baWt-jfM4ahO5qFMp7MDiy) with your fellow farmers, buyers, and sellers in the almond market. Don't have a Bountiful platform account? [Get started for free here](https://bountiful.ag/sign-up-for-free/?utm_source=hs_email&utm_medium=email&_hsenc=p2ANqtz-9TQKUs9gyrnPDvTJTIm34kmIsRauqVkO9IQ84tyIzmpoeOv1baWt-jfM4ahO5qFMp7MDiy).    ## 🎉 October Position Report Release Almond Board of California will release the October 2023 position report in less than 2 weeks, it's out on November 10th. You can expect an email from [Bountiful](http://app.bountiful.ag/?utm_source=hs_email&utm_medium=email&_hsenc=p2ANqtz-9TQKUs9gyrnPDvTJTIm34kmIsRauqVkO9IQ84tyIzmpoeOv1baWt-jfM4ahO5qFMp7MDiy) as soon as it's out, letting you know new data is added to [Market](https://app.bountiful.ag/market?utm_source=hs_email&utm_medium=email&_hsenc=p2ANqtz-9TQKUs9gyrnPDvTJTIm34kmIsRauqVkO9IQ84tyIzmpoeOv1baWt-jfM4ahO5qFMp7MDiy) for you!   [Subscribe to Almond Updates](https://share.hsforms.com/1mu9cKS6qT4ivSsN0igfKeA4fy5s?utm_source=hs_email&utm_medium=email&_hsenc=p2ANqtz--DlgJZCzYz-z49sphGKFJ8n7ubHHqCiAp_hGhX9qf5RAbgNyYr2ExTF_Yul1grCA7irTRt) to get the latest almond market intelligence and industry news delivered straight to your inbox. [View full post](https://blog.bountiful.ag/weekly-almond-market-update-10/26/23-to-11/1/23) ```json { "@context" : "http://schema.org", "@type" : "BlogPosting", "author" : { "@type" : "Person", "name" : "Megan Nunes" }, "dateModified" : "2023-11-09T03:57:25.877Z", "datePublished" : "2023-11-01T19:00:00Z", "headline" : "Weekly Almond Update: 10/26/23 to 11/1/23", "image" : { "@type" : "ImageObject", "height" : 1532, "url" : "https://7462576.fs1.hubspotusercontent-na1.net/hubfs/7462576/Screenshot%202023-11-01%20at%201.03.12%20PM.png", "width" : 2874 }, "mainEntityOfPage" : "https://blog.bountiful.ag/weekly-almond-market-update-10/26/23-to-11/1/23", "publisher" : { "@type" : "Organization", "logo" : { "@type" : "ImageObject", "height" : 60.0, "url" : "https://7462576.fs1.hubspotusercontent-na1.net/hubfs/7462576/Bountiful%20Logo.png", "width" : 176.49484 }, "name" : "Market Updates" } } ```